Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-10-23 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 48.0%

TBL: 52.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.10

TBL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	COL	TBL
Season SV%	0.924	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	34	31	3	91.2%	3.98	5	0.98
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	18	6	75.0%	2.92	2	-3.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • COL at home vs TBL: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-23	COL 6 - 3 TBL	COL	TBL
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	13	0	1.05
1	TBL	15	1	1.02
2	COL	13	0	0.73
2	TBL	27	3	2.25
3	COL	9	2	1.13
3	TBL	11	1	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown