New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-10-24 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 7 - 4 New York Rangers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 55.8%

NYR: 44.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.16

NYR: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

J. Johansson

NYR

Dylan Garand - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	OTT	NYR
Season SV%	—	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	J. Johansson	28	24	4	85.7%	3.76	2	-0.24
NYR	Dylan Garand	24	17	7	70.8%	6.06	7	-0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs NYR: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-24	OTT 7 - 4 NYR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-23	NYR 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-14	NYR 4 - 8 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-04	OTT 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	OTT
2025-03-08	OTT 4 - 3 NYR	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	8	0	0.68
1	NYR	8	1	0.72
2	OTT	17	1	1.49
2	NYR	16	1	1.63
3	OTT	11	6	3.89
3	NYR	22	0	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown