Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-10-24 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 49.2%

BUF: 50.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.10

BUF: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	WSH	BUF
Season SV%	0.887	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.07	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	21	18	3	85.7%	2.20	1	-0.80
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	34	30	4	88.2%	3.77	1	-0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WSH at home vs BUF: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-24	WSH 4 - 3 BUF	WSH	BUF
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	BUF
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	0	0.77
1	BUF	9	0	0.52
2	WSH	19	1	1.92
2	BUF	13	1	1.04
3	WSH	12	0	0.74
3	BUF	10	0	0.59
4	WSH	3	0	0.34
4	BUF	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1