Vegas Golden Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-10-24 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 49.8%

VGK: 50.2%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.09

VGK: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

C. Talbot

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	CBJ	VGK
Season SV%	—	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	C. Talbot	27	26	1	96.3%	2.76	2	1.76
VGK	Carter Hart	20	18	2	90.0%	2.01	1	0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CBJ at home vs VGK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-24	CBJ 2 - 1 VGK	CBJ	VGK
2026-01-08	VGK 5 - 3 CBJ	VGK	VGK
2025-12-13	CBJ 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-13	CBJ 0 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-30	VGK 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	9	1	0.56
1	VGK	10	1	0.95
2	CBJ	12	0	0.72
2	VGK	7	0	0.35
3	CBJ	10	0	0.45
3	VGK	20	1	1.46
4	CBJ	3	0	0.29
4	VGK	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1