Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-10-24 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 49.2%

TOR: 50.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.11

TOR: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	EDM	TOR
Season SV%	0.906	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Tristan Jarry	32	25	7	78.1%	3.79	3	-3.21
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	32	30	2	93.8%	2.97	1	0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • EDM at home vs TOR: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-24	EDM 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	TOR
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	19	1	1.25
1	TOR	12	1	1.46
2	EDM	17	0	0.86
2	TOR	20	0	1.09
3	EDM	17	0	0.87
3	TOR	13	2	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown