Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Mammoth NHL Predictions

2026-10-24 • Delta Center

Utah Mammoth 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 69.3%

TBL: 30.7%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.75

TBL: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

TBL

D. Hildeby

Stat	UTA	TBL
Season SV%	0.895	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	33	29	4	87.9%	4.43	3	0.43
TBL	D. Hildeby	28	23	5	82.1%	4.00	4	-1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • UTA at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-24	UTA 5 - 4 TBL	UTA	UTA
2026-01-26	TBL 2 - 0 UTA	TBL	TBL
2025-11-02	UTA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-27	TBL 8 - 0 UTA	TBL	TBL
2025-03-22	UTA 6 - 4 TBL	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	12	0	0.66
1	TBL	19	2	2.53
2	UTA	16	0	1.09
2	TBL	15	1	1.03
3	UTA	17	3	1.90
3	TBL	13	0	0.68
4	UTA	2	1	0.34
4	TBL	1	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Utah Mammoth 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.8 - 2.6