New York Islanders at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-10-25 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 6 - 3 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 61.5%

NYI: 38.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.32

NYI: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	DAL	NYI
Season SV%	0.907	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	20	17	3	85.0%	1.83	1	-1.17
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	38	32	6	84.2%	3.89	5	-2.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DAL at home vs NYI: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-25	DAL 6 - 3 NYI	DAL	DAL
2026-03-26	NYI 2 - 1 DAL	NYI	DAL
2025-11-18	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-02-23	NYI 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	NYI
2024-10-12	DAL 3 - 0 NYI	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	2	1.14
1	NYI	11	1	0.63
2	DAL	19	1	1.20
2	NYI	12	0	0.87
3	DAL	18	2	1.54
3	NYI	7	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown