Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-10-25 • Princess Auto Stadium

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 38.3%

MTL: 61.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.75

MTL: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

S. Skinner

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	WPG	MTL
Season SV%	—	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	S. Skinner	21	19	2	90.5%	2.98	2	0.98
MTL	Jacob Fowler	34	33	1	97.1%	3.74	1	2.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-03	MTL 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	MTL
2026-10-25	WPG 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-02-04	WPG 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-03	MTL 3 - 2 WPG	MTL	WPG
2025-01-28	MTL 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	19	0	1.56
1	MTL	14	0	0.69
2	WPG	16	0	0.73
2	MTL	15	0	1.04
3	WPG	17	1	1.45
3	MTL	13	2	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown