Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-10-26 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 50.4%

TOR: 49.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.15

TOR: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

TOR

S. Bobrovsky

Stat	CGY	TOR
Season SV%	0.914	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Devin Cooley	28	26	2	92.9%	2.82	1	0.82
TOR	S. Bobrovsky	34	29	5	85.3%	4.46	4	-0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CGY at home vs TOR: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-26	CGY 5 - 2 TOR	CGY	CGY
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	19	0	1.06
1	TOR	13	1	1.10
2	CGY	19	0	1.23
2	TOR	14	0	0.91
3	CGY	13	4	2.16
3	TOR	13	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown