Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-10-26 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 52.3%

DET: 47.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.23

DET: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

DET

M. Postava

Stat	EDM	DET
Season SV%	0.906	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Tristan Jarry	31	27	4	87.1%	3.74	3	-0.26
DET	M. Postava	31	28	3	90.3%	2.93	0	-0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • EDM at home vs DET: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-26	EDM 3 - 4 DET	DET	EDM
2025-12-11	EDM 4 - 1 DET	EDM	EDM
2025-10-19	DET 4 - 2 EDM	DET	DET
2025-01-30	EDM 2 - 3 DET	DET	EDM
2024-10-27	DET 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	0	0.33
1	DET	10	0	0.45
2	EDM	13	0	1.00
2	DET	21	2	1.53
3	EDM	18	0	1.04
3	DET	9	0	0.63
4	EDM	4	0	0.32
4	DET	2	0	0.14
5	EDM	3	0	0.25
5	DET	2	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1