New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-10-27 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 5 New Jersey Devils

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 41.5%

NJD: 58.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.91

NJD: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

NJD

C. Hellebuyck

Stat	DAL	NJD
Season SV%	0.912	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.44	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	27	22	5	81.5%	2.58	1	-2.42
NJD	C. Hellebuyck	18	17	1	94.4%	1.80	2	0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 27% • DAL at home vs NJD: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-27	DAL 1 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-03-24	DAL 4 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL
2025-12-03	NJD 0 - 3 DAL	DAL	NJD
2025-03-04	DAL 4 - 3 NJD	DAL	DAL
2025-02-22	NJD 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	7	0	0.56
1	NJD	13	0	0.62
2	DAL	8	2	0.74
2	NJD	22	1	1.61
3	DAL	10	0	0.49
3	NJD	7	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown