Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-10-27 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 57.5%

OTT: 42.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.29

OTT: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

OTT

J. Johansson

Stat	VGK	OTT
Season SV%	0.888	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	26	25	1	96.2%	2.75	2	1.75
OTT	J. Johansson	29	25	4	86.2%	4.27	4	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • VGK at home vs OTT: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-27	VGK 4 - 1 OTT	VGK	VGK
2026-01-25	OTT 7 - 1 VGK	OTT	OTT
2025-11-26	VGK 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	VGK
2024-11-21	OTT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	OTT
2024-10-25	VGK 6 - 4 OTT	VGK	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	1	0.77
1	OTT	15	0	0.62
2	VGK	22	1	1.47
2	OTT	11	0	0.69
3	VGK	18	2	2.02
3	OTT	15	2	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown