Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-10-27 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 0 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 42.1%

BUF: 57.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.01

BUF: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

Stat	SJS	BUF
Season SV%	0.896	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	3.25

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	40	38	2	95.0%	4.54	3	2.54
BUF	Colten Ellis	23	23	0	100.0%	2.69	3	2.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • SJS at home vs BUF: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-27	SJS 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-03-19	SJS 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	SJS
2026-03-10	BUF 6 - 3 SJS	BUF	BUF
2025-03-04	BUF 2 - 6 SJS	SJS	BUF
2024-11-23	SJS 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	20	1	1.11
1	BUF	18	0	1.27
2	SJS	9	1	0.89
2	BUF	22	1	1.40
3	SJS	12	1	0.68
3	BUF	14	2	1.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown