Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-10-28 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 73.9%

PHI: 26.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.90

PHI: 2.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

PHI

J. Woll

Stat	WSH	PHI
Season SV%	0.913	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	25	23	2	92.0%	2.30	1	0.30
PHI	J. Woll	30	25	5	83.3%	4.36	5	-0.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs PHI: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-28	WSH 5 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	3	1.30
1	PHI	12	0	0.65
2	WSH	14	0	0.90
2	PHI	7	0	0.33
3	WSH	14	2	2.16
3	PHI	15	1	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown