Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-10-28 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 0 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 60.7%

CGY: 39.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.61

CGY: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	EDM	CGY
Season SV%	0.906	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Tristan Jarry	24	24	0	100.0%	2.10	0	2.10
CGY	Devin Cooley	32	28	4	87.5%	3.14	2	-0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • EDM at home vs CGY: 8-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-28	EDM 4 - 0 CGY	EDM	EDM
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	0	0.81
1	CGY	13	0	0.50
2	EDM	12	0	0.72
2	CGY	20	0	1.28
3	EDM	22	2	1.61
3	CGY	8	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown