New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-10-28 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 New Jersey Devils

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 50.7%

NJD: 49.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.14

NJD: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	COL	NJD
Season SV%	0.924	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	22	20	2	90.9%	2.34	1	0.34
NJD	Jake Allen	44	39	5	88.6%	4.09	4	-0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs NJD: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-28	COL 5 - 2 NJD	COL	COL
2026-10-20	NJD 4 - 3 COL	NJD	NJD
2025-10-28	COL 8 - 4 NJD	COL	COL
2025-10-26	NJD 4 - 3 COL	NJD	COL
2025-02-26	COL 5 - 1 NJD	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	0	0.71
1	NJD	7	0	0.36
2	COL	29	2	2.28
2	NJD	10	0	0.83
3	COL	20	2	1.11
3	NJD	15	1	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown