Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-10-28 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 5 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 48.6%

TOR: 51.4%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.12

TOR: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

TOR

S. Bobrovsky

Stat	SEA	TOR
Season SV%	0.920	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.32	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	21	17	4	81.0%	1.91	0	-2.09
TOR	S. Bobrovsky	17	12	5	70.6%	2.32	0	-2.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • SEA at home vs TOR: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-28	SEA 5 - 4 TOR	SEA	TOR
2026-01-29	SEA 5 - 2 TOR	SEA	SEA
2025-10-18	TOR 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	SEA
2025-02-06	SEA 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-10-31	TOR 4 - 1 SEA	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	SEA	11	0.85
1	TOR	20	0.80
2	SEA	15	1.25
2	TOR	6	0.29
3	SEA	6	0.23
3	TOR	14	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown