Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-10-29 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 68.1%

WPG: 31.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.84

WPG: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WPG

S. Skinner

Stat	TBL	WPG
Season SV%	0.913	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	17	4	81.0%	2.04	0	-1.96
WPG	S. Skinner	31	25	6	80.6%	4.32	3	-1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • TBL at home vs WPG: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-29	TBL 6 - 4 WPG	TBL	TBL
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	WPG
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	0	0.59
1	WPG	10	0	0.41
2	TBL	19	2	2.50
2	WPG	13	0	0.65
3	TBL	15	1	1.23
3	WPG	14	0	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown