Utah Mammoth at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-10-29 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Utah Mammoth (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 52.4%

UTA: 47.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.46

UTA: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

UTA

S. Cossa

Stat	PIT	UTA
Season SV%	0.886	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	34	30	4	88.2%	4.18	1	0.18
UTA	S. Cossa	34	31	3	91.2%	2.53	0	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs UTA: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-29	PIT 3 - 4 UTA	UTA	PIT
2026-10-19	UTA 5 - 4 PIT	UTA	UTA
2026-03-14	UTA 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	UTA
2025-12-14	PIT 4 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-01-29	UTA 2 - 3 PIT	PIT	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	14	0	0.85
1	UTA	11	0	0.87
2	PIT	18	0	0.78
2	UTA	14	0	0.95
3	PIT	9	0	0.64
3	UTA	20	0	1.45
4	PIT	4	0	0.25
4	UTA	7	1	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Utah Mammoth

Expected: 3.5 - 3.3