Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-10-29 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 48.7%

BOS: 51.3%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.97

BOS: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	STL	BOS
Season SV%	0.901	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	32	31	1	96.9%	2.36	1	1.36
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	18	14	4	77.8%	2.59	2	-1.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 27% • STL at home vs BOS: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-29	STL 4 - 1 BOS	STL	BOS
2025-12-09	STL 2 - 5 BOS	BOS	STL
2025-12-04	BOS 5 - 2 STL	BOS	STL
2024-11-16	BOS 2 - 3 STL	STL	BOS
2024-11-12	STL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	16	1	1.19
1	BOS	16	0	0.69
2	STL	7	1	0.65
2	BOS	13	0	0.57
3	STL	8	0	0.75
3	BOS	22	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown