Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2026-10-29 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 55.7%

WSH: 44.3%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.45

WSH: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	NSH	WSH
Season SV%	0.897	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.93	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	29	25	4	86.2%	2.69	1	-1.31
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	27	24	3	88.9%	2.70	3	-0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NSH at home vs WSH: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-29	NSH 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NSH
2026-02-05	WSH 4 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-11	NSH 3 - 2 WSH	NSH	NSH
2025-01-11	NSH 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	NSH
2024-11-06	WSH 3 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	15	1	0.87
1	WSH	12	0	0.44
2	NSH	9	0	0.52
2	WSH	22	1	1.47
3	NSH	18	2	1.31
3	WSH	13	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown