Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-10-29 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 54.6%

MTL: 45.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.18

MTL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	DAL	MTL
Season SV%	0.907	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	21	16	5	76.2%	3.65	2	-1.35
MTL	Jakub Dobes	19	17	2	89.5%	2.03	0	0.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • DAL at home vs MTL: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-29	DAL 2 - 5 MTL	MTL	DAL
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	0	0.81
1	MTL	13	0	0.95
2	DAL	9	0	0.79
2	MTL	9	0	0.50
3	DAL	9	0	0.42
3	MTL	12	2	2.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown