St. Louis Blues at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-10-31 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 58.5%

STL: 41.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.36

STL: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	DET	STL
Season SV%	0.893	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	15	10	5	66.7%	3.42	3	-1.58
STL	Joel Hofer	28	24	4	85.7%	2.35	3	-1.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 27% • DET at home vs STL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-31	DET 4 - 5 STL	STL	DET
2025-10-28	STL 2 - 5 DET	DET	STL
2025-10-25	DET 6 - 4 STL	DET	DET
2025-04-01	STL 2 - 1 DET	STL	STL
2024-12-23	DET 0 - 4 STL	STL	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	0.53
1	STL	5	0	0.30
2	DET	11	2	0.95
2	STL	14	0	1.04
3	DET	15	1	0.87
3	STL	11	3	2.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown