Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2026-10-31 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 44.4%

TBL: 55.6%

Expected Goals

NSH: 2.91

TBL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	NSH	TBL
Season SV%	0.875	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.29	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Justus Annunen	29	25	4	86.2%	3.12	1	-0.88
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	36	31	5	86.1%	4.88	4	-0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NSH at home vs TBL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-31	NSH 5 - 4 TBL	NSH	TBL
2026-03-29	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-28	NSH 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-29	NSH 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-28	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	16	1	1.07
1	TBL	13	0	0.81
2	NSH	13	0	0.77
2	TBL	15	1	0.87
3	NSH	15	2	1.56
3	TBL	13	0	0.94
4	NSH	3	0	0.32
4	TBL	3	0	0.24
5	NSH	4	1	1.16
5	TBL	4	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Nashville Predators 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2