Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-10-31 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 0 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 57.3%

EDM: 42.7%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.33

EDM: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	NYI	EDM
Season SV%	0.910	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	24	20	4	83.3%	3.00	5	-1.00
EDM	Tristan Jarry	18	18	0	100.0%	1.97	0	1.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs EDM: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-31	NYI 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	NYI
2026-01-15	EDM 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	EDM
2025-10-16	NYI 4 - 2 EDM	NYI	NYI
2025-03-14	NYI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	NYI
2024-11-12	EDM 4 - 3 NYI	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	6	0	0.38
1	EDM	11	0	0.57
2	NYI	12	0	0.66
2	EDM	14	3	1.16
3	NYI	12	0	0.93
3	EDM	11	2	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown