Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-10-31 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 5 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 43.5%

OTT: 56.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.86

OTT: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

OTT

S. Ersson

Stat	SJS	OTT
Season SV%	0.895	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	35	30	5	85.7%	5.82	6	0.82
OTT	S. Ersson	23	22	1	95.7%	2.03	2	1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-31	SJS 1 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-10-22	OTT 2 - 6 SJS	SJS	OTT
2026-03-15	OTT 7 - 4 SJS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-22	SJS 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-01	OTT 5 - 3 SJS	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	11	1	0.77
1	OTT	21	2	1.24
2	SJS	11	0	0.46
2	OTT	15	1	1.23
3	SJS	10	1	0.80
3	OTT	25	3	3.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown