Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-10-31 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 45.4%

PIT: 54.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.00

PIT: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

PIT

Sergei Murashov - 1-1-0 | 0.932 SV% | 1.53 GAA

Stat	MTL	PIT
Season SV%	0.904	0.932
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	1.53

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	29	25	4	86.2%	3.98	5	-0.02
PIT	Sergei Murashov	27	22	5	81.5%	2.65	1	-2.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • MTL at home vs PIT: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-31	MTL 5 - 4 PIT	MTL	PIT
2026-10-03	PIT 6 - 5 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	20	0	1.06
1	PIT	10	0	0.51
2	MTL	10	1	1.07
2	PIT	13	1	0.99
3	MTL	5	0	0.52
3	PIT	25	4	2.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown