Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-10-31 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 50.3%

TOR: 49.7%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.18

TOR: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

L. Meriläinen

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	VAN	TOR
Season SV%	—	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	L. Meriläinen	28	24	4	85.7%	4.00	1	0.00
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	28	26	2	92.9%	2.65	2	0.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 27% • VAN at home vs TOR: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-31	VAN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	VAN
2026-01-31	VAN 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	VAN
2026-01-10	TOR 5 - 0 VAN	TOR	TOR
2025-02-08	VAN 2 - 1 TOR	VAN	TOR
2025-01-11	TOR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	18	1	1.37
1	TOR	14	0	1.13
2	VAN	8	0	0.28
2	TOR	20	0	1.64
3	VAN	13	1	1.00
3	TOR	6	1	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown