Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-10-31 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 76.7%

CGY: 23.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.32

CGY: 2.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 54%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

CGY

A. Sergeev

Stat	COL	CGY
Season SV%	0.924	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	27	25	2	92.6%	2.55	5	0.55
CGY	A. Sergeev	33	28	5	84.8%	3.83	4	-1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 88% • COL at home vs CGY: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-31	COL 5 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2026-10-08	CGY 3 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	11	0	0.47
1	CGY	11	0	0.42
2	COL	20	1	1.67
2	CGY	12	3	1.11
3	COL	14	3	1.69
3	CGY	15	2	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 76.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown