Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-11-01 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 56.2%

MIN: 43.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.35

MIN: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	WSH	MIN
Season SV%	0.913	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	29	24	5	82.8%	3.84	3	-1.16
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	27	26	1	96.3%	3.59	3	2.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • WSH at home vs MIN: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-01	WSH 1 - 5 MIN	MIN	WSH
2025-12-16	MIN 5 - 0 WSH	MIN	WSH
2025-10-17	WSH 5 - 1 MIN	WSH	WSH
2025-03-27	MIN 4 - 2 WSH	MIN	MIN
2025-01-02	WSH 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	0	0.65
1	MIN	15	0	1.00
2	WSH	17	2	1.63
2	MIN	12	0	0.68
3	WSH	18	1	1.31
3	MIN	17	3	2.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown