Utah Mammoth at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-11-01 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 3 Utah Mammoth

🚨 Upset Win (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 35.8%

UTA: 64.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.67

UTA: 3.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	PHI	UTA
Season SV%	0.910	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	22	19	3	86.4%	2.80	1	-0.20
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	21	15	6	71.4%	2.53	1	-3.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs UTA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-01	PHI 6 - 3 UTA	PHI	UTA
2026-03-05	PHI 0 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-01-21	UTA 5 - 4 PHI	UTA	UTA
2025-02-04	UTA 3 - 2 PHI	UTA	UTA
2024-12-08	PHI 2 - 4 UTA	UTA	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.36
1	UTA	16	0	1.21
2	PHI	14	0	0.97
2	UTA	8	0	0.47
3	PHI	7	1	1.20
3	UTA	14	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown