Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-11-01 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 59.8%

EDM: 40.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.49

EDM: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Dylan Garand - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

EDM

M. Tomkins

Stat	NYR	EDM
Season SV%	0.000	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Dylan Garand	25	21	4	84.0%	3.34	4	-0.66
EDM	M. Tomkins	28	27	1	96.4%	2.37	2	1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYR at home vs EDM: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-01	NYR 1 - 4 EDM	EDM	NYR
2025-10-30	EDM 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	EDM
2025-10-14	NYR 0 - 2 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-03-16	NYR 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-11-23	EDM 6 - 2 NYR	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	7	0	0.33
1	EDM	9	0	0.46
2	NYR	20	1	1.19
2	EDM	14	2	1.21
3	NYR	14	1	0.85
3	EDM	13	2	1.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown