Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-11-02 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 45.5%

VGK: 54.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.91

VGK: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	BOS	VGK
Season SV%	0.903	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	26	24	2	92.3%	3.03	2	1.03
VGK	Carter Hart	30	27	3	90.0%	4.00	3	1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • BOS at home vs VGK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-02	BOS 3 - 2 VGK	BOS	VGK
2026-01-22	BOS 4 - 3 VGK	BOS	VGK
2025-10-16	VGK 6 - 5 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-03-20	VGK 5 - 1 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-02-08	BOS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	2	0.98
1	VGK	15	0	0.95
2	BOS	12	0	0.76
2	VGK	14	2	1.39
3	BOS	16	0	0.78
3	VGK	4	0	0.19
4	BOS	5	0	0.33
4	VGK	2	0	0.23
5	BOS	3	1	1.15
5	VGK	3	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2