Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-11-02 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 2 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 45.1%

CGY: 54.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.15

CGY: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	SJS	CGY
Season SV%	0.896	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	22	20	2	90.9%	2.50	2	0.50
CGY	Dustin Wolf	27	26	1	96.3%	2.70	1	1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SJS at home vs CGY: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-02	SJS 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	CGY
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	11	0	0.53
1	CGY	13	0	0.74
2	SJS	21	0	1.17
2	CGY	11	0	0.65
3	SJS	18	1	1.00
3	CGY	8	2	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown