Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-11-03 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Utah Mammoth

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 38.9%

UTA: 61.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.83

UTA: 3.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

S. Bobrovsky

UTA

S. Cossa

Stat	TOR	UTA
Season SV%	—	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	S. Bobrovsky	36	33	3	91.7%	4.11	3	1.11
UTA	S. Cossa	29	27	2	93.1%	2.01	0	0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TOR at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-03	TOR 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-10-13	UTA 5 - 4 TOR	UTA	UTA
2026-01-13	UTA 6 - 1 TOR	UTA	UTA
2025-11-05	TOR 5 - 3 UTA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-10	UTA 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.47
1	UTA	22	2	1.48
2	TOR	9	0	0.35
2	UTA	22	0	1.32
3	TOR	25	0	1.19
3	UTA	11	1	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown