Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-11-03 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 61.7%

WPG: 38.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.42

WPG: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

WPG

S. Skinner

Stat	MTL	WPG
Season SV%	0.904	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	47	42	5	89.4%	4.61	3	-0.39
WPG	S. Skinner	22	18	4	81.8%	2.64	1	-1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs WPG: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-03	MTL 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	MTL
2026-10-25	WPG 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-02-04	WPG 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-03	MTL 3 - 2 WPG	MTL	WPG
2025-01-28	MTL 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	1	0.77
1	WPG	18	1	1.05
2	MTL	13	0	0.91
2	WPG	22	1	1.95
3	MTL	15	0	0.82
3	WPG	17	1	1.19
4	MTL	1	0	0.14
4	WPG	6	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7