Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-11-03 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 67.3%

DET: 32.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.52

DET: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	TBL	DET
Season SV%	0.913	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	19	2	90.5%	3.10	4	1.10
DET	John Gibson	27	23	4	85.2%	4.28	4	0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TBL at home vs DET: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-03	TBL 4 - 2 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	1	1.86
1	DET	4	0	0.21
2	TBL	16	1	1.33
2	DET	11	1	0.97
3	TBL	8	2	1.09
3	DET	18	3	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown