Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-11-03 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 54.0%

VGK: 46.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.31

VGK: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	PIT	VGK
Season SV%	0.886	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	23	20	3	87.0%	2.45	1	-0.55
VGK	Adin Hill	25	23	2	92.0%	3.05	2	1.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs VGK: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-03	PIT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	PIT
2026-10-17	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	0	0.84
1	VGK	13	0	1.07
2	PIT	10	0	0.89
2	VGK	10	0	0.59
3	PIT	15	2	1.32
3	VGK	8	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown