Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-11-03 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 6 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 54.2%

DAL: 45.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.32

DAL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	WSH	DAL
Season SV%	0.913	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	22	16	6	72.7%	3.10	3	-2.90
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	20	5	80.0%	2.52	0	-2.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • WSH at home vs DAL: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-03	WSH 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	WSH
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	0	0.72
1	DAL	12	1	1.04
2	WSH	13	0	1.16
2	DAL	14	1	1.28
3	WSH	14	0	0.65
3	DAL	10	1	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown