Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-11-04 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 52.2%

OTT: 47.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.23

OTT: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

OTT

S. Ersson

Stat	BUF	OTT
Season SV%	0.895	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Colten Ellis	30	28	2	93.3%	3.34	3	1.34
OTT	S. Ersson	24	23	1	95.8%	2.26	1	1.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • BUF at home vs OTT: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-04	BUF 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	BUF
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	0.81
1	OTT	16	0	0.99
2	BUF	9	0	0.62
2	OTT	17	1	1.30
3	BUF	10	1	0.83
3	OTT	11	2	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown