Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-11-04 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 2 - 1 Calgary Flames (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 47.1%

CGY: 52.9%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.00

CGY: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	SEA	CGY
Season SV%	0.903	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.77	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Joey Daccord	26	25	1	96.2%	2.45	0	1.45
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	27	2	93.1%	2.47	1	0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • SEA at home vs CGY: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-04	SEA 2 - 1 CGY	SEA	CGY
2026-10-30	CGY 6 - 2 SEA	CGY	CGY
2026-10-04	SEA 6 - 1 CGY	SEA	SEA
2026-10-01	CGY 1 - 6 SEA	SEA	SEA
2026-04-11	SEA 4 - 1 CGY	SEA	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	10	1	0.84
1	CGY	19	0	0.76
2	SEA	13	0	0.78
2	CGY	16	0	0.94
3	SEA	18	0	0.69
3	CGY	14	0	0.75
4	SEA	1	0	0.16
4	CGY	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 2 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2