Utah Mammoth at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-11-05 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 Utah Mammoth (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 45.4%

UTA: 54.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.98

UTA: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

UTA

S. Cossa

Stat	MTL	UTA
Season SV%	0.889	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	20	16	4	80.0%	3.55	4	-0.45
UTA	S. Cossa	35	30	5	85.7%	4.41	6	-0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • MTL at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-05	MTL 5 - 4 UTA	MTL	UTA
2025-11-26	UTA 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	UTA
2025-11-08	MTL 6 - 2 UTA	MTL	MTL
2025-01-14	UTA 3 - 5 MTL	MTL	UTA
2024-11-26	MTL 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	0.62
1	UTA	11	1	0.85
2	MTL	19	3	1.85
2	UTA	15	2	1.77
3	MTL	19	2	1.83
3	UTA	13	1	0.93
4	MTL	1	0	0.11
4	UTA	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 Utah Mammoth

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3