Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-11-05 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 45.3%

VGK: 54.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.94

VGK: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

D. Tarasov

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	DET	VGK
Season SV%	—	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	D. Tarasov	34	32	2	94.1%	3.90	2	1.90
VGK	Carter Hart	26	25	1	96.2%	2.95	2	1.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • DET at home vs VGK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-05	DET 1 - 2 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-04	DET 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	DET
2025-11-04	VGK 1 - 0 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-22	VGK 6 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-16	DET 3 - 0 VGK	DET	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	0	0.38
1	VGK	19	0	1.24
2	DET	22	1	1.23
2	VGK	11	0	0.79
3	DET	14	1	1.33
3	VGK	16	2	1.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown