Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-11-05 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 83.0%

CHI: 17.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.06

CHI: 1.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	TBL	CHI
Season SV%	0.913	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	25	1	96.2%	1.99	0	0.99
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	35	31	4	88.6%	3.18	3	-0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs CHI: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-05	TBL 4 - 1 CHI	TBL	TBL
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	2	0.64
1	CHI	7	0	0.32
2	TBL	18	0	1.42
2	CHI	14	0	0.75
3	TBL	15	1	1.12
3	CHI	16	0	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 83.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown