Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-11-05 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 35.2%

CAR: 64.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.66

CAR: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	NYI	CAR
Season SV%	0.000	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	39	34	5	87.2%	3.85	3	-1.15
CAR	Brandon Bussi	27	24	3	88.9%	3.46	3	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • NYI at home vs CAR: 4-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-05	NYI 3 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-14	NYI 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	NYI
2026-04-04	CAR 4 - 3 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-10-30	CAR 6 - 2 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-03-30	CAR 6 - 4 NYI	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	0.99
1	CAR	14	1	1.07
2	NYI	16	2	1.65
2	CAR	21	0	1.51
3	NYI	10	1	0.81
3	CAR	16	2	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown