Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-11-05 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 61.0%

PHI: 39.0%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.50

PHI: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Dylan Garand - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

PHI

J. Woll

Stat	NYR	PHI
Season SV%	0.000	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Dylan Garand	25	23	2	92.0%	2.78	1	0.78
PHI	J. Woll	28	25	3	89.3%	3.74	3	0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • NYR at home vs PHI: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-05	NYR 3 - 2 PHI	NYR	NYR
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	12	0	1.02
1	PHI	15	0	0.64
2	NYR	16	1	0.99
2	PHI	15	1	1.25
3	NYR	15	2	1.73
3	PHI	12	0	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown