Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-11-05 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 6 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 62.1%

BOS: 37.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.57

BOS: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

BOS

Michael DiPietro - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	PIT	BOS
Season SV%	0.886	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	24	18	6	75.0%	2.66	1	-3.34
BOS	Michael DiPietro	18	16	2	88.9%	2.46	0	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 31% • PIT at home vs BOS: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-05	PIT 2 - 6 BOS	BOS	PIT
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	PIT
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	7	0	0.59
1	BOS	18	1	1.61
2	PIT	17	0	1.17
2	BOS	12	0	0.68
3	PIT	10	0	0.70
3	BOS	4	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown