Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-11-05 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 2 - 1 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 41.7%

DAL: 58.3%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 2.82

DAL: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

C. Talbot

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	CBJ	DAL
Season SV%	—	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	C. Talbot	29	28	1	96.6%	3.05	3	2.05
DAL	Casey DeSmith	32	29	3	90.6%	4.67	4	1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CBJ at home vs DAL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-05	CBJ 2 - 1 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2026-10-31	DAL 3 - 1 CBJ	DAL	DAL
2026-01-22	CBJ 1 - 0 DAL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-21	DAL 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-02-25	CBJ 6 - 4 DAL	CBJ	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	15	0	1.07
1	DAL	10	0	0.54
2	CBJ	13	0	0.53
2	DAL	20	0	0.91
3	CBJ	13	2	1.22
3	DAL	13	3	1.29
4	CBJ	1	0	0.05
4	DAL	3	0	0.14
5	CBJ	3	2	1.79
5	DAL	2	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3