Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-11-05 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 5 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 67.9%

ANA: 32.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.43

ANA: 2.39

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

M. Tomkins

ANA

L. Brossoit

Stat	EDM	ANA
Season SV%	—	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Tomkins	21	16	5	76.2%	3.57	6	-1.43
ANA	L. Brossoit	27	23	4	85.2%	3.54	2	-0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • EDM at home vs ANA: 10-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-05	EDM 4 - 5 ANA	ANA	EDM
2026-10-07	ANA 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-04-30	ANA 5 - 2 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-28	EDM 4 - 1 ANA	EDM	EDM
2026-04-26	ANA 4 - 3 EDM	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	0	0.73
1	ANA	11	2	1.38
2	EDM	12	1	1.23
2	ANA	14	3	1.31
3	EDM	18	1	1.57
3	ANA	12	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown