Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-11-05 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Nashville Predators (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 64.4%

NSH: 35.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.56

NSH: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

Stat	COL	NSH
Season SV%	0.924	0.875
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	3.29

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	25	22	3	88.0%	3.25	4	0.25
NSH	Justus Annunen	32	30	2	93.8%	2.83	1	0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • COL at home vs NSH: 9-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-05	COL 2 - 3 NSH	NSH	COL
2026-10-25	NSH 6 - 2 COL	NSH	COL
2026-01-16	COL 3 - 7 NSH	NSH	COL
2025-12-13	COL 4 - 2 NSH	COL	COL
2025-12-09	NSH 4 - 3 COL	NSH	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	1	0.98
1	NSH	16	2	1.47
2	COL	14	0	0.57
2	NSH	12	2	1.00
3	COL	15	0	0.89
3	NSH	12	0	0.69
4	COL	4	0	0.40
4	NSH	1	0	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7